viz this OB post, which I dub “Takes one to know one” (yeah, I still read it almost daily. It’s like a compulsion…)
/violin for Robin. Those lazy physicists get all the love…
I’m curious that you think business forecasters are in the business of validating their models and predictions with quantitative scores in the same way weather forecasters do.
I’m open to the possibility that it happens – can anyone point me in the direction of an example? As an outsider I don’t see economists consistently predicting anything of note – happy to be proven wrong, but I think the guts of it is Taleb’s point that the system of interest simply doesn’t have predictibility on the scales we think it should.
And what is the point of scoring physicists predictions about what will be discovered, anyway? My gut feeling is that well calibrated forecast of potential discoveries would need to be so poorly resolved that you wasted your time coming up with a scheme to forecast it in the first place. Not to mention the number of forecasts is so small that measures of reliability and ability to discriminate will be hopelessly inaccurate.
Hey, maybe we can shut down the LHC and use a prediction market to decide whether the Higgs Boson exists.